Mary G Krauland

Contributions to Public Health

• I am a member of the Public Health Dynamics Laboratory (PHDL), where we use computational methods to improve the theory and the practice of public health. My background is a combination of biology, computer science and epidemiology. Since 2013, I have worked with the modeling and simulation platform FRED (Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics) developed by PHDL. FRED is an agent-based modeling system, developed in the C++ programming language. It has been used to model diverse scenarios, such as infectious diseases, impact of mitigation strategies, and responses to emergency situations. As both a software developer and an epidemiologist, I provide a unique perspective on the development and use of complex software to model population biology. 

• I have developed a number of projects that focus on modeling influenza, incorporating vaccination schemes, varied effectiveness and circulation of multiple variants. I am interested in the interplay between viral transmissibility, prior immunity and vaccine effectiveness and in how these factors drive seasonal and pandemic influenza. 

  • Krauland MG, Mandell A, Roberts MS. An Agent-based Model of Averted Burden and the Direct and Indirect Benefits of Influenza Vaccination. JAMA Netw Open. 

  • Krauland MG, Zimmerman RK, Williams KV, Raviotta JM, Harrison LH, Williams JV, Roberts MS. Agent-based model of the impact of higher influenza vaccine efficacy on seasonal influenza burden. Vaccine X. 2023 Apr;13:100249. doi: 10.1016/j.jvacx.2022.100249. Epub 2022 Dec 15. PMID: 36536801; PMCID: PMC9753457.

• We developed and calibrated a retrospective COVID-19 model as an after-action evaluation of Pennsylvania mitigation strategies for the Pennsylvania Department of Health. This model showed the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the first year of the pandemic in Pennsylvania.

  • Krauland MG, Roberts MS. Modeling the Impact of COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies in Pennsylvania, USA. MDM Policy Pract. 2024 Jun 20;9(1):23814683241260744. doi: 10.1177/23814683241260744. PMID: 38911124; PMCID: PMC11191394.

• With other researchers in PHDL, I have collaborated on modeling the effects of decreased measles vaccination on measles outbreak incidence and size.

  • Sinclair DR, Grefenstette JJ, Krauland MG, Galloway DD, Frankeny RJ, Travis C, Burke DS, Roberts MS. Forecasted Size of Measles Outbreaks Associated With Vaccination Exemptions for Schoolchildren. JAMA Netw Open. 2019 Aug 2;2(8):e199768. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2019.9768. PMID: 31433482; PMCID: PMC6707017.

• With collaborators including those in the School of Public Health and in Sweden, PHDL has modeled addiction to drugs and e-cigarettes.

  • Lönn SL, Krauland MG, Fagan AA, Sundquist K, Roberts MS, Kendler KS. The Impact of the Good Behavior Game on Risk for Drug Use Disorder in an Agent-Based Model of Southern Sweden. J Stud Alcohol Drugs. 2023 Nov;84(6):863-873. doi: 10.15288/jsad.22-00413. Epub 2023 Aug 30. PMID: 37650838; PMCID: PMC10765974.

  • Chu KH, Shensa A, Colditz JB, Sidani JE, Hoffman BL, Sinclair D, Krauland MG, Primack BA. Integrating Social Dynamics into Modeling Cigarette and E-Cigarette Use. Health Educ Behav. 2020 Apr;47(2):191-201. doi: 10.1177/1090198119876242. Epub 2020 Feb 24. PMID: 32090652; PMCID: PMC7256966.

• Using the spatially realistic FRED population. We modeled cardiovascular disease risk and the correlation of risk factors using Allegheny County specific data.

  • Krauland MG, Frankeny RJ, Lewis J, Brink L, Hulsey EG, Roberts MS, Hacker KA. Development of a Synthetic Population Model for Assessing Excess Risk for Cardiovascular Disease Death. JAMA Netw Open. 2020 Sep 1;3(9):e2015047. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.15047. PMID: 32870312; PMCID: PMC7489828.