The value of simple models, rapidly built with available data, to aid decision makers during response to catastrophic infectious disease events will be demonstrated through 4 models: 1) Estimating, in near real-time, the impact of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic; 2) Modeling input to aid the decision regarding the production of H3N2v monovalent vaccine; 3) Estimating impact of proposed vaccination for a hypothetical H5N2 influenza pandemic (exercise); and 4) A Risk-Benefit analysis of different options for testing and treating asymptomatic patients potentially infected with contaminated steroid product. These examples will be used to illustrate some basic concepts that must guide modelers as they interact with public health decision makers during responses.
Simple Models for Public Health Decision Making During a Response.
Martin Meltzer, PhD
Lead, Health Economics and Modeling Unit, CDC